سنجش توان ایالات متحده در تغییر رفتار جمهوری اسلامی ایران

نویسندگان

1 استادیار روابط بین‌الملل دانشگاه بین‌المللی اهل بیت (ع)، تهران، ایران.

2 استادیار روابط بین‌الملل دانشگاه جامع امام حسین (ع)، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

گروه اقدام ایران بخشی از وزارت امور خارجه ایالات متحده است که در سال 2018 تأسیس شد. با خروج آمریکا از برجام، این گروه مدیریت و هماهنگی اقدامات تهاجمی علیه ایران را عهده دار است. سازندگان این گروه، اهداف جامعی را در قالب 12 شرط پمپئو، وزیر امور خارجه آمریکا، بیان داشته‌اند و ابزارهای مختلف را در اختیار قرار داده‌اند. قوانین کنگره، کمک‌های بلاعوض آمریکا به دولت‌ها و سازمان‌های بین‌المللی، تراز منفی تجاری آمریکا در مبادلات با قدرت‌ها، وابستگی نظامی منطقه به آمریکا و پایگاه‌های نظامی ایالات متحده، ابزارهای اصلی گروه اقدام در پیاده سازی استراتژی‌های خود هستند. با این حال، صرف‌نظر از دعاوی، آیا این گروه قادر به پوشش دادن همه اهداف خود است و تا چه حد می تواند آنها را پوشش دهد؟ این مقاله با بهره گیری از مطالعات امکان‌سنجی در ابعاد مختلف حقوقی، منابع، فنی، عملیاتی، زمانی و اقتصادی دایره اهداف(طیفی از تعدیل رفتار منطقه‌ای تا تغییر رژیم) و روش‌های این گروه(طیفی از تحریم تا تهاجم مستقیم نظامی) را مشخص و 20 استراتژی ممکن اولویت بندی و مشخص شده که کدامیک در سیاست‌های اعمالی آمریکا و کدام یک در تقابل با چالش‌ها از بیش‌ترین امکان تحقق برخوردار است. هم‌چنین، در جمع‌بندی با در نظر گرفتن ابعاد مختلف امکان‌سنجی، طرح اولیه‌ای از راهبردهای جامع تقابلی ارائه شده که البته بحث و تدقیق آنها به پژوهش‌های دیگر نیاز دارد. 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Measuring the United States' ability to change the behavior of the Islamic Republic of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Boghairi 1
  • Hadi Tajik 2
1 Assistant Professor of International Relations, Ahl al-Bayt International University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of International Relations, Imam Hossain Comprehensive University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Extended Abstract:
In order to implement the three-month and six-month sanctions against Iran - which Trump called for by withdrawing from the UN Security Council - on August 16, 2018, the " Iran Action Group " group was established by order of Mike Pompeo at the US State Department. The group's founders set out comprehensive goals in the form of 12 conditions for Pompeo, the US Secretary of State, and provided various tools. Congressional laws, US grants to governments and international organizations, the US trade deficit in power dealings, the region's military dependence on the US and US military bases are the group's main tools in implementing its strategies. The US government has so far made several attempts to put pressure on Iran, and the establishment of this group is one of them. However, there is disagreement about the purpose of this group around three axes: (1) ‌ This group should pursue new goals that are different from previous goals. In this regard, so far, the goal of putting pressure on Iran has been to change its regional behavior, but this group is pursuing further goals and even regime change. (2) This group is merely a tool to emphasize pressure on Iran and has propaganda aspects. Trump seeks to present himself as the flagship of the idea and a new and successful plan by rejecting the records of the past. Therefore, he is very interested in presenting his usual works as special and successful ideas. Trump's unpopularity among Republicans and his need for legitimacy are the main reasons for doing so. (3) The group seeks to integrate all anti-Iranian efforts around its axis. In this regard, it seeks to gain international consensus against Iran in implementing its unilateral policies, especially in imposing sanctions. However, regardless of the claims, is this group able to cover all its goals and to what extent can it cover them? This article uses the feasibility studies in various legal, resource, technical, operational, temporal and economic dimensions of the scope (range from adjusting regional behavior to regime change) and methods of this group (range from sanctions to direct military aggression). It is clear that 20 strategies may be prioritized, and which one is most feasible in US policy and which is the most challenging. However, whatever the purpose of establishing the Action Group, more importantly, its ability to implement its programs. In this regard, this report tries to examine the tools and goals of this group and the challenges ahead, its capability in the practical implementation of its policies towards Iran. But before that, the history of the creation and formation of such groups and a brief description of the goals of the announcement, the structure and the records of its chairman are presented. Also, in summarizing, taking into account the different dimensions of metacommunication, an initial plan of comprehensive confrontational strategies has been presented, which, of course, requires further research and discussion. Finally, this study believes that in order to further limit the project of the action group, it is necessary to focus on different dimensions of metacommunication. In this regard: (1) In the legal dimension: adherence to international rules and maintaining the IAEA by showing the dangers posed by Iran's withdrawal from the IAEA Board and its consequences for Europe, which can be facilitated by a slight facilitation of border control. He warned Europe; (2) In terms of resources: upgrading the economic context and diplomatic capabilities of the Islamic Republic of Iran by activating a new generation of young and motivated diplomats; (3) In the operational dimension: multiplication and diversification of import and export crossings and fields by facilitating the activities of the private sector, domestic and foreign, and preventing the fall in the value of the national currency; (4) Historically: Purchasing time and avoiding security-tightening measures no later than the 2020 US presidential election and (5) Economically: And security with other actors, especially international powers to protect exports, especially oil, and finding hidden channels for international financial transactions while diverting US attention to fake channels as major strategies to counter the group's anti-Iranian programs. Are offered. It is worth noting that these strategies are merely suggestions that determine the direction of future research.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Iran Action Group. America
  • Feasibility Study
  • Goals
  • Tools
  1. Allied Control Commissions (ACC)
  2. Atlas, Boots (2018). World’s Most Powerful Passport 2018, January 13: https://www.atlasandboots.com/best-passport-to-have/
  3. Chenail, Ronald J (2011). Ten steps for conceptualizing and conducting qualitative research studies in a pragmatically curious manner. The Qualitative Report, 16(6), 1715-1732.
  4. CNBC (2018). US sanctions on Iran are set to keep oil prices elevated, analysts say, 6 Aug: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/06/us-sanctions-on-iran-could-push-oil-prices-above-90-a-barrel-by-year-.html
  5. Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.
  6. Countering Iran in the Western Hemisphere Act of 2012.
  7. De Luce, Dan (2018). Abigail Williams and Andrea Mitchell, U.S. refuses European requests for exemptions from its new sanctions on Iran, July 14: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-refuses-european-requests-exemptions-its-new-sanctions-iran-n891371
  8. Defense Manpower Data Center (2018). Number of Military and DoD Appropriated Fund (APF) Civilian Personnel Permanently Assigned By Duty Location and Service/Component (as of June 30).
  9. Denson, John (1999). The Costs of War: America's Pyrrhic Victories, second edition, New Jersey: Transaction Publishers.
  10. Department of state (2018). Map of foreign assistance worldwide: https://www.foreignassistance.gov/explore
  11. Desjardins, Jeff (2017). U.S. Military Personnel Deployments by Country, March 18: http://www.visualcapitalist.com/u-s-military-personnel-deployme -nts-country/
  12. Ekéus, Rolf (2012). The Iraq Action Team: a model for monitoring and verification of WMD non-proliferation, 26 September: https://www. Sipri .org/commentary/essay/wed-09-26-2012-14-00/sep-12-iraq-action-team-a-model-for-monitoring-and-verification-of-wmd-non-proliferation
  13. El-Sharkawy, Ashraf (2005). Economic feasibility studies. Pathways to Higher Education.
  14. Global Diplomacy Index )2017.( Countery Ranling: http://global -diplomacy  index.lowy institute.org/country_rank.html
  15. Global fire power )2018(. Military Strength Ranking: https: //www. Global firepower.com
  16. H.R.1883-Iran Nonproliferation Act of )2000.(
  17. H.R.1905-Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act of )2012.(
  18. H.R.2194-Comprehensive Iran Sanctions,Accountability,and Divestment Act of (2010).
  19. H.R.3107-Iran and Libya Sanctions Act of (1996): https://www. Congress .gov/bill/104th-congress/house-bill/3107?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%5B %22iran%22%5D%7D&r=89.
  20. H.R.3364 — 115th Congress (2017-2018).
  21. H.R.3783-Countering Iran in the Western Hemisphere Act of (2012).
  22. H.R.6198-Iran Freedom Support Act.
  23. H.R.6297-Iran Sanctions Extension Act.
  24. Haass, Richard N (2005). Regime change and its limits. Foreign Aff., 84, 66.
  25. Harris, Shane (2017). CIA Creates New Mission Center to Turn Up the Heat on Iran, June 2, the Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cia-creates-new-mission-center-to-turn-up-heat-on-iran-1496426232.
  26. Haynes, Jessica (2017). Here are the countries that receive the most foreign aid from the US, 21 Dec: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-21/here-are-the-countries-that-get-the-most-foreign-aid-from-the-us/9278164.
  27. HDRO (Human Development Report Office) United Nations Development Programme (2018). Human Development Report 2018-Human Development Indices and Indicators (PDF). Retrieved 14 September. pp. 22–25.
  28. Hersh, Seymour (2006). The Iran Plans. The New Yorker, 17(2006), 30-37.
  29. Iran Nonproliferation Amendments Act of (2005).
  30. Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of (2015).
  31. Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act of (2012).
  32. Iraq Action Team.
  33. Kennedy, Edward(1977). Congress the president and the pocket veto. Virginia Law Review, 355-382.
  34. Klein, Jeff (2018). Ending the Destructive US Military Role in the Middle East, July 17: http://masspeaceaction.org/ending-the-destructive-us-military-role-in-the-middle-east/.
  35. Korea Mission Center.
  36. Massachusetts Peace Action.
  37. McArthur, John and Rasmussen, Krista (2017). What would US cuts to the UN look like? Brookings: May1: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2017/05/01/what-would-us-cuts-to-the-un-look-like/
  38. Myers, Kristin (2018). Forgine Aid by Countery: Who Is Getting The Most-And How Much?, February 21:  https://www .concernusa.org/ story/ foreign-aid-by-country-getting-how-much./
  39. National Priorities Project.
  40. Official Newspaper,Num21273,19/03/2018. [In Persian]
  41. Radelet, Steve (2006). A primer on foreign aid.
  42. Reuters (2018). Iran says U.S. 'action group' will fail to overthrow Iranian state, AUGUST 19: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-usa /iran -says-u-s-action-group-will-fail-to-overthrow-iranian-state-idUSKBN4080.
  43. Riddell, Roger C (2014). Does Foreign Aid Really Work?, Keynote address to the Australasian Aid and International Development Workshop, Canberra 13th February.
  44. ROSE, Aguilar R; Laura (2018). The cost of war, 15 years after the US invasion of Iraq, MAR 20: http://www.kalw.org/post/cost-war-15-years-after-us-invasion-iraq .
  45. S.1713-Iran Nonproliferation Amendments Act of (2005).
  46. SIPRI Fact Sheet, 2017.
  47. Slav, Irina (2018). The Critical Chokepoint That Could Send Oil To $250, Jul 09: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-Critical-Chokepoint-That-Could-Send-Oil-To-250.html.
  48. Statista, Total value of international U.S. imports of goods and services 2000-2017 https://www.statista.com/statistics/219696/value-of-international-us-imports-of-goods-and-services-since-2000/.
  49. Statista, Total volume of U.S. imports of trade goods and services from (2010 - 2018).by quarter(in billion U.S. dollars): https://www.statista. com/statistics/215538/volume-of-us-imports-of-trade-goods-and-services-by-quarter/.
  50. Statista, Countries with the highest oil consumption (2014-2017)https:// www .statista.com/statistics/271622/countries-with-the-highest-oil-consumption-in-2012/
  51. Statista, Total volume of U.S. exports of trade goods and services from (2010 - 2018), by quarter (in billion U.S. dollars): https://www.statista.com/ statis -tics/ 215520/ volume-of-us-exports-of-trade-goods-and-services-by-quarter/.
  52. The Iran Mission Center. [In Persian]
  53. To amend the Iran and Libya Sanctions Act of 1996 to extend the authorities provided in such Act until September 29, (2006).
  54. U.S Department of State, Briefing on the Creation of the Iran Action Group, Special Briefing: Brian Hook, Special Representative for Iran, Washington, DC,(2018): https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2018/08/285186.htm.
  55. U.S. Departement Of the Treasur, OFAC FAQs: Iran Sanctions: https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/faqs/Sanctions/Pages/faq_iran. Aspx.
  56. UN Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM).
  57. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Population Estimates and Projections Section (2017).Total Population - Both Sexes. World Population Prospects, the 2017 Revision.  June. Retrieved 22 June.
  58. United Nations, General Assembly, Fifth Committe, GA/AB/4185, Seventieth Session, 23RD Meeting (PM), (2015), Fifth Committee Recommends $5.4 Billion Budget for 2016-2017 Biennium as It Concludes Main Part of Seventieth Session: https:// www.un. org/press/en /2015/ gab 4185.doc.htm.
  59. Urban, Samantha (2017). How does foreign aid affect U.S. security? Just ask these military officials, June 13: https://www.one.org/us/2017/06/13/foreign-aid-national-security-politico-opinion/.
  60. US Energy Information Administration, The 10 largest oil producers and share of total world oil production in (2017). https://www.eia.gov /tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&t=6
  61. Word Bank )2017(. GDP per capita.
  62. Word Bank )2017(. Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (modeled ILO estimate).
  63. Word Economi Forum, Human Capital Report, (2016).
  64. World Economic Forum, Foreign aid: These countries are the most generous:https://www.weforum.org/agenda(2016)08/foreign-aid-these-countries-are-the-most-generous/.

Zachary, Keck (2018). No Easy War Here: Why America Isn't Invading Iran Anytime Soon, July 23,: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/no-easy-war-here-why-america-isnt-invading-iran-anytime-soon-26586.