The Fundamental and Applied Studies of the Islamic World

Future research of Iran-Saudi relations until 2028

Document Type : Original Article

Author

tarzampour, mohammad

Department of International Relations, Faculty of Law and Political Sciences, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran.

https://doi.org/10.22034/fasiw.2024.436153.1320
Abstract
According to convergence theory, whose famous theorists are Raymond Aron and John Kenneth Galbraith, Great powers, despite their ideological differences, probably have similar behavior to each other regarding issues related to national security and maintaining interests. So, Iran and Saudi Arabia should be aware that being strong and cooperating is the only option for a bright future for these two countries and consequently the Middle East region. In this context, the author believes that everything that is happening in our region today is a background for the new order. From Brexit, widespread protests in Iran, and the coming to power of the Taliban in Afghanistan, and shadow of Saudi Arabia over Yemen, to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Azerbaijan's control over Karabakh, and the control of a significant amount of the Gaza Strip by the Zionist regime. And what is important in the meantime is Iran's appropriate action to stay out of this competition. At the individual level of analysis, both countries have the main decision maker in the form of (leader / king). In terms of the region, it should be stated that these two can have the greatest impact on the security of the region. At the global level, America's focus from the Persian Gulf to the Asia Pacific can provide space for the creation of a bloc led by these two in the region with global influence. Iran and Saudi Arabia must be aware that the new world order is happening and all countries will pursue their interests at this time, and in the meantime, any country that falls into the trap of "internal unrest and foreign war" will be the loser in the future.
As a future study if the purpose of the research is to identify and evaluate the causal relationships and influence between factors, the structural method is more suitable, but if the purpose of the research is to produce and evaluate several different scenarios for the future, the extension method is more suitable. In this research, we present a combination of these two. In fact in this research, we identified the main drivers using the MicMac software, then obtained different scenarios using the morphological matrix, and finally we presented our prescriptive analytics and outlined the ways to achieve it.
The integrated (interdisciplinary) method tells us that since no single method has been able to be sufficient or complete on its own, it is better to use all possible methods to reach more convincing results and possibly discover the truth. So it can be concluded that the combination of realism and constructivism will have a favorable and balanced result. Whose foundations can be seen in the theory of realist constructivism, this approach can use cause and effect analysis and structural analysis in international relations and thus be an analytical and critical approach. In fact, flexibility can help us a lot, as Samuel Barkin uses this example in his book: In the sociology of science, paradigms are a bit like castles. The scientists are the knights in this metaphor, and the assumptions are the lords that the knights / scientists are sworn to defend. The strength of a paradigm can be measured by the number of scientists willing to defend its ramparts. Scientists tend to stay true to their assumptions, so that model castles successfully defend their inhabitants, until those inhabitants die. In this metaphor, one is more concerned with defending one's (fortress / paradigm) and defeating others than with building a bridge between them. In other words, the paradigms are different from each other and in conflict with each other, and we seek to overcome this issue.
What can be obtained from the historical investigation as well as the observation of current issues is that the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia have been influenced by various factors such as culture, religion, politics, economy and regional interests since ancient times. In general, the following three cases can be considered as the main turning points between the two countries. 1. The series of Arab-Iranian wars in the 7th century AD and the influence of Islam in Iran following the established communications. 2. The establishment of the Safavid government in the 16th century and the declaration of Shiism as the official religion of the country. 3: The impact of pan-Arabism movements and the Iranian revolution in the 20th century. In general, by examining the historical and contemporary relations of the two countries, we reached a set of events, trends, variables and actors. And finally, by examining the impact of these things on each other, we reached the drivers by which we were able to extract scenarios and finally presented our prescribed scenario and the solutions to achieve it.
It should be noted that after the mutual influence of 54 components on each other, the overall result was as follows:

America is the most prominent actor (influential variable) in this case.
The nuclear deal is very important.
The role of communication developments can be influential in the future.
The role of the Iranian society as a defeated actor is weak in these conflicts.

Finally, we present the recommendation of this research in the form of a short story.
In 2028, Iran and Saudi Arabia reached an unprecedented level of cooperation and friendship. They solved the old problems and established a bloc like the European Union with a new approach by reducing dependence on oil. America also supported this process and canceled all sanctions in order not to lose its superior position over China. The resistance axis countries also achieved acceptable stability following the de-escalation of tensions, and the neighboring Arab countries improved their relations with Iran, and the Middle East region began its new path.
In the best case, the future of the two countries is stable competition and cooperation, and in the worst case, Iran will become weaker and more normal every day under Saudi Arabia, and finally, at the point of desperation, they will lead to a military conflict. In fact, what is considered desirable from the point of view of this prescriptive future research lies behind the issue that Iran and Saudi Arabia achieve convergence with each other, a convergence that both of them are at the peak of power, and finally we get the following results:

The two strong twin countries of Iran and Saudi Arabia will create peace and sustainable development in the region if they converge.
The roots of proxy wars and terrorist acts will dry up.
The problem of Palestine and Israel will be solved.
It is in the interest of Iran and Saudi Arabia to take full control of the Persian Gulf together so that not only the hands of the western countries are cut short, but also a vacuum is not created.
Creating an economic bloc that creates balance and benefit in the relationship between East and West.

 

Highlights

Adler, E. Ed. (2012). Israel in the world: Legitimacy and exceptionalism, Routledge.

 

Al-Badi, A. (2017). Saudi-Iranian relations: A troubled trajectory, Security and bilateral issues between Iran and its Arab neighbours, Pp. 189-209.

 

Altaf, A.; David, S. (2023). Saudi Israeli Relations: The Benefits and Implications of an Alliance, Journal of Student Research, 12(1).

 

Ameri, Houshang (2012). Principles of International Relations, Tehran: Aghah. [In Persian]

 

Azghandi, Alireza (2015). Foreign Policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Tehran: Ghomes. [In Persian]

 

Barkin, J.S. (2003). Realist constructivism, International Studies Review, 5(3), Pp. 325-342.

 

Barkin, J.S. (2012). Realist constructivism, Cambridge University press.

 

Bayat, A. (1998). Revolution without movement, movement without revolution: Comparing  Islamic activism in Iran and Egypt, Comparative studies in society and history, 40(1), Pp. 136-169.

 

Bazzi, M. (2016). Iran-Saudi cold war grows fiery hot, The Straits Times.

 

Bell, W. (2013). Foundations of Futures Studies: History, Purposes, and Knowledge, Tehran: -Defense Industries Educational and Research Institute. [In Persian]

 

Burnham, P; Gilland, K; Grant, W and others (2011). Research Methods in Political Science, Tehran: Office of Political and International Studies. [In Persian]

 

Cooley, J. K. (1979). Iran, the Palestinians, and the Gulf, Foreign Affairs, 57(5), Pp. 1017-1034.

 

Dehghani, Seyyed Jalal; Rostami, Farzad; Daneshnia, farhad (2021). The Outlook for Iran-Saudi Relations; Future Scenarios and Strategies, World Politics, (2)10. [In Persian]

 

Elyassi, H. (2018). Survival of OPEC and Saudi–Iran relations-A historical overview, Contemporary Review of the Middle East, 5(2), Pp.137-155.

 

Eslami, R.; Amani, F. (2023). Consideration of the dispute between Iran and Saudi Arabia relations (2013-2018), Iranian Research letter of International Politics, 11(2).      

 

Fayaz, R. (2020). the origin of tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Global Crossroads: Rethinking Dominant Orders in Our Contested World, 123.

 

Ghavam, Seyyed Abdol Ali (2011). International relations, theories and approaches, Tehran: Samt. [In Persian]

 

Gordon, A. (2017). the Future of Decision Making: Identifying Trends; Toward Optimal Decision Making; Managing Uncertainty and Change, Tehran: Imam Hossein Comprehensive University. [In Persian]

 

Hafez Nia, Mohammad Reza; Ebrahim, Rumina (2005). The Evolution of Iran-Saudi Relations and Its Impact on the Geopolitics of the Persian Gulf, Geographical Research, 2(20). [In Persian]

 

Heinz, A; Bishop, P. (2016). Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Future Writing, Tehran: Imam Sadiq University. [In Persian]

  

Jackson, P.T; Nexon, D.H; Sterling-Folker, J and others (2004). Bridging the gap: Toward a realist-constructivist dialogue, International Studies Review, 6(2), Pp. 337-352.

 

Javedy, Roghayeh; Behrouz ilak, Gholam Reza (2017). Future Scenarios of Iran-Saudi Relations, Political and International Research Quarterly, (32)9. [In Persian]

 

Khalili, Reza; Nasri, Qadir; Asgari Armandi, Mohammad (2023). The rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia and developments in the Middle East security complex, Fundamental and applied studies of the Islamic world, 5(3), Pp. 49-72. [In Persian]

 

Keynoush, B. (2016). Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Levant Geopolitics: The Cases of Lebanon, Syria, Palestine. In Saudi Arabia and Iran: Friends or Foes?. New York: Palgrave Macmillan US, Pp. 203-225,

 

Kifner, J. (1987). 400 die as Iranian marchers battle Saudi police in Mecca; embassies smashed in Teheran: The NewYork Times.

 

 

Lazin, F. A. (2023). President Donald Trump's Abraham Accords initiative: Prospects for Israel, the Arab states, and Palestinians, Politics & Policy, 51(3), Pp. 476-487.

 

Library of Harvard. (2023). Iranian oral history project: Scene 73. https://library.harvard.edu/collections/iranian-oral-history-project

 

 

Long, D. e. (1974). the United States and Saudi Arabia, The hajj today: a survey of the contemporary, Confrontation and cooperation in the gulf, middle east problem paper no10, Washington d.c: Middle East institute.

 

Mamadkul, J. (2014). Saudi Arabia–Iran’s foreign policy crisis: A case study of execution of Saudi Shia Cleric Shaikh Nimr al-Nimr, Rangsit Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities,Pp. 75-82.

 

Mason, R. (2014). Foreign Policy in Iran and Saudi Arabia, Foreign Policy in Iran and Saudi Arabia, London : I.B. Tauris, Pp. 1-288.

 

Mcginn, J. (2018). Saudi Arabia and Iran: Beyond Conflict and Coexistence, LSE Middle East Centre Report,Pp. 1-13.

 

Mnekhir, H. J. (2023). the strategy of rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia is an important step towards peace and stability in the region, Russian Law Journal, 11(11s).

 

Mohammadi Nigjeh, Alireza; Daheshyar, Housein; Shafiei, Nozar (2023). Mutual Sources of Concern between Iran and Saudi Arabia; Why and How, International Geopolitics Quarterly, (19)71. [In Persian]

 

Mosalanejad, Abbas (2017). policy making regional balance in Iran-Saudi relations, Political Quarterly, (46) 4. [In Persian]

 

Moshirzadeh, Homeira (2014). development in theories of international relations, Tehran: Samt. [In Persian]

 

Moslehi, Amin; Motaghi, Ebrahim (2023). Patterns of Cooperation and Conflict in Iran-Saudi Relations and Its Impact on the Middle East Regional Order 1979-2023, Journal of World Affairs Research, (1)1. [In Persian]

 

MousaviNia, Seyyed Reza (2017). Easy Research Method in Humanities, Tehran: Nashr-e-Mokhatab. [In Persian]

 

MousaviNia, Seyyed Reza (2020). Future Studies (the extension method) and Application of International Relations Theories, Political and International Approaches, (1)59. [In Persian]

 

Nakhavali, M. (2022). Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry after the Islamic revolution of Iran, University of Belgrade.

 

Noormohammadi, Morteza; Saifi, Anahita (2020). Cultural Foundations of Iran-Saudi Conflict, International Geopolitics Quarterly, (15)56. [In Persian]      

 

Parsaei, Jafar (2021). Investigating the Factors of Disagreement and Conflict in Iran and Saudi Arabia Relations, Foreign Policy Quarterly, (35)1. [In Persian]

 

Peteson, R. (1988). the gulf cooperation council: search for unity in a dynamic region (west view special studies on the Middle East), boulder, colo: west view press, 97.

 

Rasouli Sani Abadi, Elham; Taheri, Ebrahim; Pakzad Moghadam, Seyyed Ali (2020). Iran-Saudi Relations, Islamic Revolution Studies, 17(62). [In Persian]

 

Rostami, Mohsen; Farajirad, Abdolreza; Sorour, Rahim (2016). Possible Scenarios for the Future Study of Iran and Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Relations Based on the Geopolitical Developments of the Arab Region (in the period of 2025), Islamic World Political Studies, (1)5. [In Persian]

 

Sadeghi, H. ; Ahmadian, H. (2011). Iran-Saudi relations: Past pattern, future outlook, Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs, 1(4), Pp. 115-148.

 

Saei, Ahmad; Alikhani, Mehdi (2013). Investigating the Cycle of Conflict in Iran-Saudi Arabia Relations with Emphasis on the Period 2013-2005, Political Science, (22)9. [In Persian]

 

Sajedi, A. (1993). Iran's Relations with Saudi Arabia, India Quarterly, 49(1-2), Pp. 75-96.

 

Simbar, Reza; Rezapour, Danial; Azin,Sadigheh (2021). Islamic republic of Iran s the policy towards the GCC countries, Fundamental and applied studies of the Islamic words, 2(4),Pp. 50-73 [In Persian]

 

Tarzampour, Mohammad (2023). the Encyclopedia of International Relations, Tehran: Narvan Danesh. [In Persian]

 

Tarzampour, Mohammad (2021). the Paradox of Iran-US Relations: a brief look of the Qajar Papacy to the Beginning of the Thirteenth Government, Opportunities and  Challenges, Tehran: Raznahan. [In Persian]

 

Terrill, W. A. (2011). The Saudi-Iranian rivalry and the future of Middle East security, Department of the Army.

 

The Middle East: Saudi Arabia and Iran compared Course Material 2020/21 https://www.hist.cam.ac.uk/middle-east-saudi-arabia-and-iran-compared.

 

Tzemprin, A.; Jozić, J.; Lambare, H. (2015). The Middle East cold war: Iran-Saudi Arabia and the way ahead, Politička misao: časopis za politologiju, 52(4-5),Pp 187-202.

 

Wehrey, F.; Karasik, T. W.; Nader; A. and others (2009). Sectarianism and Ideology in the Saudi-Iranian Relationship, In Saudi-Iranian Relations Since the Fall of Saddam: Rivalry, Cooperation, and Implications for U.S. Policy ,1st ed., Pp. 11–44. RAND Corporation. http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/mg840srf.8.

Keywords

Futures Studies
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Realist constructivism
Morphological Matrix
.MicMac Software
Subjects
Adler, E. Ed. (2012). Israel in the world: Legitimacy and exceptionalism, Routledge.
 
Al-Badi, A. (2017). Saudi-Iranian relations: A troubled trajectory, Security and bilateral issues between Iran and its Arab neighbours, Pp. 189-209.
 
Altaf, A.; David, S. (2023). Saudi Israeli Relations: The Benefits and Implications of an Alliance, Journal of Student Research, 12(1).
 
Ameri, Houshang (2012). Principles of International Relations, Tehran: Aghah. [In Persian]
 
Azghandi, Alireza (2015). Foreign Policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Tehran: Ghomes. [In Persian]
 
Barkin, J.S. (2003). Realist constructivism, International Studies Review, 5(3), Pp. 325-342.
 
Barkin, J.S. (2012). Realist constructivism, Cambridge University press.
 
Bayat, A. (1998). Revolution without movement, movement without revolution: Comparing  Islamic activism in Iran and Egypt, Comparative studies in society and history, 40(1), Pp. 136-169.
 
Bazzi, M. (2016). Iran-Saudi cold war grows fiery hot, The Straits Times.
 
Bell, W. (2013). Foundations of Futures Studies: History, Purposes, and Knowledge, Tehran: -Defense Industries Educational and Research Institute. [In Persian]
 
Burnham, P; Gilland, K; Grant, W and others (2011). Research Methods in Political Science, Tehran: Office of Political and International Studies. [In Persian]
 
Cooley, J. K. (1979). Iran, the Palestinians, and the Gulf, Foreign Affairs, 57(5), Pp. 1017-1034.
 
Dehghani, Seyyed Jalal; Rostami, Farzad; Daneshnia, farhad (2021). The Outlook for Iran-Saudi Relations; Future Scenarios and Strategies, World Politics, (2)10. [In Persian]
 
Elyassi, H. (2018). Survival of OPEC and Saudi–Iran relations-A historical overview, Contemporary Review of the Middle East, 5(2), Pp.137-155.
 
Eslami, R.; Amani, F. (2023). Consideration of the dispute between Iran and Saudi Arabia relations (2013-2018), Iranian Research letter of International Politics, 11(2).      
 
Fayaz, R. (2020). the origin of tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Global Crossroads: Rethinking Dominant Orders in Our Contested World, 123.
 
Ghavam, Seyyed Abdol Ali (2011). International relations, theories and approaches, Tehran: Samt. [In Persian]
 
Gordon, A. (2017). the Future of Decision Making: Identifying Trends; Toward Optimal Decision Making; Managing Uncertainty and Change, Tehran: Imam Hossein Comprehensive University. [In Persian]
 
Hafez Nia, Mohammad Reza; Ebrahim, Rumina (2005). The Evolution of Iran-Saudi Relations and Its Impact on the Geopolitics of the Persian Gulf, Geographical Research, 2(20). [In Persian]
 
Heinz, A; Bishop, P. (2016). Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Future Writing, Tehran: Imam Sadiq University. [In Persian]
  
Jackson, P.T; Nexon, D.H; Sterling-Folker, J and others (2004). Bridging the gap: Toward a realist-constructivist dialogue, International Studies Review, 6(2), Pp. 337-352.
 
Javedy, Roghayeh; Behrouz ilak, Gholam Reza (2017). Future Scenarios of Iran-Saudi Relations, Political and International Research Quarterly, (32)9. [In Persian]
 
Khalili, Reza; Nasri, Qadir; Asgari Armandi, Mohammad (2023). The rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia and developments in the Middle East security complex, Fundamental and applied studies of the Islamic world, 5(3), Pp. 49-72. [In Persian]
 
Keynoush, B. (2016). Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Levant Geopolitics: The Cases of Lebanon, Syria, Palestine. In Saudi Arabia and Iran: Friends or Foes?. New York: Palgrave Macmillan US, Pp. 203-225,
 
Kifner, J. (1987). 400 die as Iranian marchers battle Saudi police in Mecca; embassies smashed in Teheran: The NewYork Times.
 
 
Lazin, F. A. (2023). President Donald Trump's Abraham Accords initiative: Prospects for Israel, the Arab states, and Palestinians, Politics & Policy, 51(3), Pp. 476-487.
 
Library of Harvard. (2023). Iranian oral history project: Scene 73. https://library.harvard.edu/collections/iranian-oral-history-project
 
 
Long, D. e. (1974). the United States and Saudi Arabia, The hajj today: a survey of the contemporary, Confrontation and cooperation in the gulf, middle east problem paper no10, Washington d.c: Middle East institute.
 
Mamadkul, J. (2014). Saudi Arabia–Iran’s foreign policy crisis: A case study of execution of Saudi Shia Cleric Shaikh Nimr al-Nimr, Rangsit Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities,Pp. 75-82.
 
Mason, R. (2014). Foreign Policy in Iran and Saudi Arabia, Foreign Policy in Iran and Saudi Arabia, London : I.B. Tauris, Pp. 1-288.
 
Mcginn, J. (2018). Saudi Arabia and Iran: Beyond Conflict and Coexistence, LSE Middle East Centre Report,Pp. 1-13.
 
Mnekhir, H. J. (2023). the strategy of rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia is an important step towards peace and stability in the region, Russian Law Journal, 11(11s).
 
Mohammadi Nigjeh, Alireza; Daheshyar, Housein; Shafiei, Nozar (2023). Mutual Sources of Concern between Iran and Saudi Arabia; Why and How, International Geopolitics Quarterly, (19)71. [In Persian]
 
Mosalanejad, Abbas (2017). policy making regional balance in Iran-Saudi relations, Political Quarterly, (46) 4. [In Persian]
 
Moshirzadeh, Homeira (2014). development in theories of international relations, Tehran: Samt. [In Persian]
 
Moslehi, Amin; Motaghi, Ebrahim (2023). Patterns of Cooperation and Conflict in Iran-Saudi Relations and Its Impact on the Middle East Regional Order 1979-2023, Journal of World Affairs Research, (1)1. [In Persian]
 
MousaviNia, Seyyed Reza (2017). Easy Research Method in Humanities, Tehran: Nashr-e-Mokhatab. [In Persian]
 
MousaviNia, Seyyed Reza (2020). Future Studies (the extension method) and Application of International Relations Theories, Political and International Approaches, (1)59. [In Persian]
 
Nakhavali, M. (2022). Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry after the Islamic revolution of Iran, University of Belgrade.
 
Noormohammadi, Morteza; Saifi, Anahita (2020). Cultural Foundations of Iran-Saudi Conflict, International Geopolitics Quarterly, (15)56. [In Persian]      
 
Parsaei, Jafar (2021). Investigating the Factors of Disagreement and Conflict in Iran and Saudi Arabia Relations, Foreign Policy Quarterly, (35)1. [In Persian]
 
Peteson, R. (1988). the gulf cooperation council: search for unity in a dynamic region (west view special studies on the Middle East), boulder, colo: west view press, 97.
 
Rasouli Sani Abadi, Elham; Taheri, Ebrahim; Pakzad Moghadam, Seyyed Ali (2020). Iran-Saudi Relations, Islamic Revolution Studies, 17(62). [In Persian]
 
Rostami, Mohsen; Farajirad, Abdolreza; Sorour, Rahim (2016). Possible Scenarios for the Future Study of Iran and Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Relations Based on the Geopolitical Developments of the Arab Region (in the period of 2025), Islamic World Political Studies, (1)5. [In Persian]
 
Sadeghi, H. ; Ahmadian, H. (2011). Iran-Saudi relations: Past pattern, future outlook, Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs, 1(4), Pp. 115-148.
 
Saei, Ahmad; Alikhani, Mehdi (2013). Investigating the Cycle of Conflict in Iran-Saudi Arabia Relations with Emphasis on the Period 2013-2005, Political Science, (22)9. [In Persian]
 
Sajedi, A. (1993). Iran's Relations with Saudi Arabia, India Quarterly, 49(1-2), Pp. 75-96.
 
Simbar, Reza; Rezapour, Danial; Azin,Sadigheh (2021). Islamic republic of Iran s the policy towards the GCC countries, Fundamental and applied studies of the Islamic words, 2(4),Pp. 50-73 [In Persian]
 
Tarzampour, Mohammad (2023). the Encyclopedia of International Relations, Tehran: Narvan Danesh. [In Persian]
 
Tarzampour, Mohammad (2021). the Paradox of Iran-US Relations: a brief look of the Qajar Papacy to the Beginning of the Thirteenth Government, Opportunities and  Challenges, Tehran: Raznahan. [In Persian]
 
Terrill, W. A. (2011). The Saudi-Iranian rivalry and the future of Middle East security, Department of the Army.
 
The Middle East: Saudi Arabia and Iran compared Course Material 2020/21 https://www.hist.cam.ac.uk/middle-east-saudi-arabia-and-iran-compared.
 
Tzemprin, A.; Jozić, J.; Lambare, H. (2015). The Middle East cold war: Iran-Saudi Arabia and the way ahead, Politička misao: časopis za politologiju, 52(4-5),Pp 187-202.
 
Wehrey, F.; Karasik, T. W.; Nader; A. and others (2009). Sectarianism and Ideology in the Saudi-Iranian Relationship, In Saudi-Iranian Relations Since the Fall of Saddam: Rivalry, Cooperation, and Implications for U.S. Policy ,1st ed., Pp. 11–44. RAND Corporation. http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/mg840srf.8.

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