The Foundations of the Resurgence of Taliban's Rule in Afghanistan

Ghaderi Hajat,, Mostafa; Karimi,, Mahdi; Salehabadi,, Reyhane

doi:10.22034/fasiw.2025.508901.1450

The Foundations of the Resurgence of Taliban's Rule in Afghanistan

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Mostafa Ghaderi hajat, ¹

Mahdi Karimi, ²

Reyhane Salehabadi, ³

¹ Associate Professor at the Faculty of Humanities Department of Political Geography

² Assistant Professor, Asian Cultural Documentation Center, Institute for Humanities and Cultural Studies, Tehran, Iran

³ Postdoc Candidate, Department of Political Geography, Faculty of Humanities, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22034/fasiw.2025.508901.1450

Abstract

The resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan is one of the significant political and security developments in the region having some extensive implications for internal stability and the region's geopolitics. A precise understanding of the factors influencing this phenomenon can be helpful to analyze the roots of the crisis and to propose appropriate solutions to prevent its recurrence. Taliban’s recurrence raises some fundamental questions about its structural, social, political, and international roots as follows: Why were the Taliban able to seize control of the country after twenty years of war without significant resistance from the Afghan government and the international community? What factors led to the collapse of Afghanistan’s governmental structures, allowing the Taliban to fill the power vacuum? Was the Taliban's recurrence a result of internal weaknesses and social crises in Afghanistan, or did external variables, such as the influence of regional powers and NATO's withdrawal, play a crucial role in this process? Answering these questions requires a systemic analysis of the factors that contributed to the Taliban's re-emergence. Therefore, the main question of the article is formulated as follows: "What factors have played a role in the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, and how have these factors interacted within a systemic framework?"
This article explains the foundations of the Taliban's resurgence, considering the surrounding geopolitical realities of Afghanistan. To this end, a descriptive-analytic method is employed, and the VIKOR technique is used to assess Afghanistan provinces’ rankings in terms of spatial justice indices. Furthermore, qualitative data and observation method is utilized to examine the roles of religion, ethnicity, language, foreign influence, the influence of warlords, and reactions to the Taliban within a systemic approach.
In a systemic approach, various factors are viewed as components of a complex and dynamic network. These factors interact with one another in a closed loop, leading to either the stability or change of the current situation. The systemic approach illustrates that the Taliban's resurgence is not merely the result of one factor but rather the product of a chain of complex relationships.
The rise of the Taliban has placed increased pressure on opposition groups, particularly ethnic minorities, raising the likelihood of new resistance movements. By assuming control over Afghanistan, the Taliban gained new financial and military resources, which strengthened their position against both internal and regional rivals. Through contradictory strategies (some supporting and others opposing), regional countries have contributed to the ongoing instability. A close examination of the factors influencing the Taliban's return to power reveals that this phenomenon is not simply the result of a single cause, rather, it is the outcome of a complex interplay between internal and external factors.
The systemic analysis indicate that the Taliban have not only exploited internal factors such as ethnic and religious divides but also international opportunities, including the withdrawal of American forces and the inability of regional countries to form a united front against them. Additionally, the systemic model demonstrates that the process of reproducing the crisis in Afghanistan is such that even after the Taliban's resurgence, the likelihood of new resistances and regional instability remains.
The results of the research indicate that spatial injustice, ethnic disparities, language policies, foreign support, the weakness of the central government, and the influence of warlords have been among the most significant factors facilitating the Taliban's return to power. The systemic analysis revealed that these factors are interconnected in a causal and feedback loop, and the withdrawal of foreign forces created a power vacuum that the Taliban exploited to gain control over the country. The systemic model presented in this research illustrates that the Taliban's resurgence is a multifaceted and complex process, and without reforms in governance structures and policymaking, the likelihood of similar crises remains high in the future.

Keywords

Taliban

Resurgence of the Taliban

Afghanistan

Spatial Justice

Systems Model for Crisis Analysis

Subjects

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