Analysis of the factors influencing Türkiye's foreign policy towards the Kurdistan Regional Government from 2015 to 2025

Authors

1 Instructor in the Department of Political Science, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Associate Professor, Department of Political Sociology, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran.

10.22034/fasiw.2026.252903
Abstract
The foreign policy of the Republic of Turkey towards the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq (KRG) between 2015 and 2025 has exhibited one of the most complex and dynamic behavioral patterns in the Middle East. This study aims to examine the factors influencing this foreign policy in a turbulent decade, examining the security, economic, geopolitical and domestic variables. The findings of this study, which were based on a descriptive and analytical approach and using library data and official statistics, showed that Ankara shifted from an interactive and energy-based diplomacy to an aggressive and militarized strategy during this period. The sense of danger from the expansion of the influence of Kurdish non-state actors, coupled with the power vacuum in Baghdad and structural changes in the international system, prompted Turkish leaders to create a security buffer zone by establishing an extensive network of military bases in northern Iraq and using new technologies such as drones. At the same time, the volume of bilateral trade, which reached more than $12 billion in 2024, was used as a powerful lever to exert pressure and create asymmetric interdependence. The study concluded that Turkey’s foreign policy during this decade was a pragmatic combination of hard power and economic pressure that, while meeting Ankara’s short-term security objectives, had profound consequences for the long-term stability and balance of power in the Middle East region.

Keywords



Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 13 September 2026