Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Department Of international relations, Qo.C, Islamic Azad university, Qom, Iran
2
Department of International Relations, Faculty of Law and Political Sciences, Research Sciences Unit, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3
Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Qom Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qom, Iran
10.22034/fasiw.2026.255617
Abstract
Recent developments in Syria and the rise to power of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in December 2024 have drawn attention to the metamorphosis of Islamist groups in the Middle East. This research aims to explain how and why HTS's evolutionary path differs from that of ISIS and its implications for the regional order. The study employs a hybrid theoretical framework combining constructivism and organizational learning theory, along with a qualitative-comparative methodology, to conduct a multi-level analysis of these two groups. The findings reveal that HTS, learning from ISIS's defeat and understanding local realities, has adopted a form of "tactical realism" that, while maintaining ideological foundations, seeks to establish local governance and gain regional legitimacy. While ISIS had a rigid structure that limited its learning capacity, HTS has created more flexible structures, enabling double-loop learning and adaptation to its environment. This transformation, marked by a transition from a global caliphate-centered approach to a model of local governance, has led to a redefinition of the relationship between religion and politics in the regional order. The results indicate that the failure of radicalism and environmental pressure can create the necessary conditions for the strategic transformation of extremist groups.
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