Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Power in the Global Order: From Resource-Based Power to Smart Power

Farajpour, Reza

doi:10.22034/fasiw.2025.355455.1195.

Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Power in the Global Order: From Resource-Based Power to Smart Power

Document Type : Original Article

Author

Reza Farajpour

Department of Law, Yas.C., Islamic Azad University, Yasuj, Iran.

10.22034/fasiw.2025.355455.1195.

Abstract

Artificial intelligence is no longer merely an emerging technology alongside others; it has become a general-purpose technology that transforms the logic of production, distribution, and the exercise of power in the international system. The principal question of the article is how artificial intelligence redefines the nature and distribution of power in the future global order and what scenarios this transformation generates by the 2035 horizon. The research employs a qualitative method, integrating conceptual analysis, a systematic review of authoritative international literature, and scenario-based futures studies. The principal innovation lies in offering a novel framework termed the intelligent power, which formulates power in the AI era across five interconnected layers (material-energy, computation and cloud infrastructure, data and models, rules and standards, and cognitive-decisional), along with three novel concepts (conversion capacity, weaponized computational interdependence, and the speed-judgment paradox). The findings indicate that power shifts from the accumulation of resources to the control of bottlenecks and the capacity for technological diffusion and absorption. Based on two key uncertainties the concentration of computational capacity and the degree of global governance coordination four scenarios are delineated: computational bipolarity, platform empires, algorithmic multilateralism, and chaotic multipolarity. In conclusion, the strategy of nodal sovereignty is proposed for middle powers and developing countries.

Keywords

Artificial intelligence

world order

structural power

smart power

weaponized interdependence

futurology

nodal governance

Subjects

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