مؤلفه‌های امکانی-امتناعی و کنش‌های انطباقی در روندهای آینده افراط‌گرایی سلفی در جهان اسلام

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار روابط بین الملل دانشگاه و پژوهشگاه عالی دفاع ملی و تحقیقات راهبردی

2 رئیس پژوهشکده امنیت ملی، دانشگاه و پژوهشگاه عالی دفاع ملی و تحقیقات راهبردی

چکیده

افراط‌گرایی سلفی ازجمله مهم‌ترین پویایی‌های جهان اسلام بوده است که متأثر از مؤلفه‌های هویت بنیاد درونی و هم‌چنین فشار ساختاری بیرونی، نضج پیدا کرده است. به‌گونه‌ای که تروریسم سلفی به اصلی‌ترین عامل آشوب منطقه‌ای و تهدید امنیت بین‌المللی تبدیل شده است. اما در کنار تبیین چرایی، چگونگی شکل‌گیری تروریسم سلفی، آنچه ضرورت دارد آیندهِ تداوم و تغییر در وضعیت جریان سلفی در گستره جهان اسلام است. بر این اساس پرسش اصلی این پژوهش آن است که: «مؤلفه‌های پیش‌برنده مؤثر بر روند آتی افراط‌گرایی سلفی در جهان اسلام کدامند؟» در پاسخ به این پرسش با توجه به چارچوب نظری سازه‌انگاری، می‌توان فرضیه اصلی پژوهش را این‌گونه ارائه نمود که؛ «قوام متقابل ساختار نظام بین‌الملل و افراط‌گرایی سلفی با تشدید خشونت‌های دوجانبه نقطه محوری در روند چهار دهه افراط‌گرایی سلفی در جهان اسلام بوده است و بر همین اساس می‌توان مؤلفه‌های امکانی متعددی را در سه سطح داخلی(نظیر؛ استبداد سیاسی، دغدغه‌های هویتی)، منطقه‌ای(نظیر؛ وجود دولت‌های فرقه‌گرا، رقابت هویتی، عدم موازنه قدرت، خلأهای امنیتی و ...) و بین‌المللی (ساختار هژمونیک، فشارهای یکسان‌سازی فرهنگی، ایجاد امت مجازی و ...) برای روند تداوم افراط‌گرایی در چشم‌انداز آتی مدنظر داشت. البته افراط‌گرایی سلفی با مؤلفه‌هایی چون؛ تغییر در جغرافیای عملیات، تحول کنش تروریستی، باز تعریف دعوت سلفی و ... به انطباق‌پذیری با تحولات نوین دست خواهد زد.»

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Possible and Refusal Components and Adaptive Actions in Future Trends of Salafi Extremism in the Islamic World

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abdolah Moradi 1
  • Nasrolah Kalantari 2
1 Assistant Professor of International Relations, University and Higher Institute for National Defense and Strategic Research, Tehran, Iran
2 Supreme National Defense University and Higher Institute for National Defense and Strategic Research, Tehran,Iran
چکیده [English]

1.Introduction
Salafi extremism has been one of the most important dynamics in the Islamic world. Extremism has developed from the identity components of the internal foundation as well as the external structural pressure. For this reason, Salafi terrorism has become the main cause of regional unrest and a threat to international security. In addition to explaining why and how this problem arose, what is important is the continuation and change in the future situation of the Salafi movement in the Islamic world.
2.Methodology
Accordingly, the main question of this study is what are the factors affecting the future trend of Salafi extremism in the Islamic world. The theoretical framework of constructivism is used to find the answer to this question. In such framework, we can pay attention to three levels of analysis, domestic, regional, and international. Also, structure and agent effects. In the following, the method of futures research is used with emphasis on trend research. In the process of research, the main factors that existed in the past are extracted. Based on this, future trends are identified
3.Discussion and Result
Based on the research method, a conceptual model of the influence of extremism (agent) and the international system (structure) is presented. Based on this, the most important factors that affect the future of extremism are examined. Some factors seem to undermine extremism. These factors are considered a disadvantage such as internal divisions of extremist Salafi groups. Some factors that are mainly structural are presented as possible factors. Possible factors in three levels of domestic, regional, and international analysis, in the long term, cause extremism in the Islamic world. Also, in the medium term, extremist groups show behaviors in the face of the new situation. This case is also mentioned as a comparative action in research.
 4.Conclusion
The main hypothesis of the research can be presented as follows: The interdependence of the structure of the international system and Salafi extremism with the escalation of bilateral violence has been a focal point in the four-decade process of Salafi extremism in the Islamic world. (e.g. the existence of sectarian states, identity competition, power imbalances, security gaps) and international (hegemonic structure, cultural unification pressures, the creation of a virtual nation) were considered for the continuation of extremism in the future. Of course, Salafi extremism with components such as changes in the geography of operations, the evolution of terrorist activity, and the redefinition of the Salafi invitation will lead to adaptation to new developments.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Extremism
  • Trend Analysis
  • terrorism
  • Salafi Norm
  • International System
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