نقش تاب‌آوری اقتصادی بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای منتخب سازمان همکاری اسلامی در سال‌های 2000 تا 2018

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار دانشکده علوم و فنون، گروه علوم اقتصاد، دانشگاه بین المللی اهل البیت، تهران، ایران

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، دانشگاه بین المللی اهل البیت، تهران، ایران

چکیده

امروزه یکی از مهم‌ترین موضوعات مورد بحث، نقش تاب‌آوری اقتصادی در راستای تکانه‌های واردشده بر اقتصاد کشورهاست و این موضوع توجه پژوهشگران و کارشناسان سراسر جهان را به خود جلب کرده است. با توجه به اهمیت این موضوع، در پژوهش حاضر اثر شاخص ترکیبی تاب‌آوری اقتصادی بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای منتخب سازمان همکاری اسلامی را با استفاده از روش پنلی حداقل مربعات کاملاً اصلاح‌شده بررسی می‌کنیم. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که تاب‌آوری اقتصادی، نیروی کار و تشکیل سرمایۀ ثابت ناخالص اثر مثبت و معناداری بر رشد اقتصادی کشورها دارد. بنابراین کشورهای منتخب برای تداوم رشد اقتصادی باید بر روی مؤلفه‌های مختلف تشکیل‌دهندۀ تاب‌آوری اقتصادی از جمله کنترل نرخ تورم، نرخ بیکاری، کسری بودجۀ دولت، کسری تراز تجاری، ارتقای فناوری‌ها و سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی، مقررات‌زدایی و ارتقای فضای کسب‌وکار و کارایی و اثربخشی دولت‌ها توجه جدی کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The role of economic resilience on the economic growth of selected countries of the Islamic Cooperation Organization(2000-2018)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Ghaffari Fard 1
  • Raheleh Mohammadi 2
1 , Assistant Professor, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Economics, Ahl al-Bayt International University, Tehran, Iran
2 M.S. Student of Economics, Ahl al-Bayt International University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

economic strength has entered the economic texts of countries for several years and has been discussed by various groups and individuals. A review of global economic experiences and texts shows. Resilience means making the right decision to maintain the performance of a system in the face of external threats and shocks, which is conceptually competitive with a resilient economy. Thus, the spirit that governs most of the policies of the resistance economy can be more appropriately disseminated using the resilience literature. Resilience is well known in various fields including natural sciences, psychology, engineering and organizational and urban crisis management. But recently, economic resilience at the national level, especially after the 2008 financial crisis, has come to the attention of scholars in this field.
       The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of economic efficiency on the economic growth of selected countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). For this purpose, the time series data of 2000-2018 and 14 selected member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which include countries (Albania, Cameroon, Chad, Gabon, Indonesia, Iran, Jordan, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Senegal, Uganda) have been examined. Relevant data was collected from the World Bank. Combined economic resilience index used in this research was Morris method Economic resilience indices using components of property rights index, government effectiveness index, financial health index, trade freedom index, investment freedom index, budget deficit ratio index to GDP, the ratio of trade deficit to GDP, misery index, foreign investment index is combined and calculated. In order to be able to analyze the effect of resilience on economic growth, the econometric method of panel data (completely modified least squares method) has been used. First, the time series integration feature is discussed. After testing the root of the panel data unit, the Cao co-test was used for a long-term economic relationship. In the final stage, despite a combination of the modified least squares method was used to estimate the coefficients of the model, and to estimate the hypothesis test model, econometric analysis, Eviews10 econometric software was used. The test results indicate that the components of labor force, fixed capital formation and resilience are effective on the economic growth of Islamic countries and with the increase of these components, economic growth in these countries also increases.
According to the results of this research, the following policy proposals are presented:
 According to the results of the study, there is a positive relationship between resilience, labor and gross fixed capital formation with economic growth. Therefore, the studied countries should put the necessary grounds for increasing human capital skills, capital formation in the country and improving resilience indicators on their agenda.
In order to reduce unemployment, skills training, support for entrepreneurship and entrepreneurs and investors, adjustment of bank interest rates according to the conditions of the country's economy, tax exemptions for employers, creation of home-based businesses, development and support of rural jobs should be considered. These will reduce unemployment and also prevent the uncontrolled growth of liquidity and reduce unnecessary government spending, non-printing of money, discipline of monetary and fiscal policies will reduce inflation, which will reduce unemployment and inflation will reduce the misery index and on the other hand, it increases resilience and economic growth.
- One of the factors affecting the resilience of the budget deficit is that governments can reduce their budget deficit by issuing bonds, selling property and in the medium term by reducing costs and reforming the tax system to cover the short-term deficit.
- Islamic countries can increase resilience by adopting appropriate trade policies such as importing intermediate and basic materials for industries, exporting technical-engineering services, proper marketing, providing a suitable platform for industry competition and increasing their efficiency and creating new destination markets and naturally lead to economic growth.
- Foreign investment is also one of the components affecting economic resilience. In order to attract foreign investment, countries must first provide the ground for establishing financial discipline and providing a transparent environment away from any rent to improve business in the country, removing ambiguity in laws and regulations, including labor law and insurance. Other laws related to business, stability in policy-making and long-term strategies and proper planning to build more investor confidence, eliminate unnecessary and complicated bureaucracy, increase human productivity, predict rates currency, a serious fight against corruption and smuggling of goods should be on the agenda in order to make the economy resistant to shocks and cause the economic growth of countries.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • economic resilience Islamic Cooperation Organization

مراجع

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 29 اسفند 1400
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 29 اسفند 1400

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