موقعیت اقدام راهبردی گام نخست تدوین سیاست همسایگی بهینه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه جغرافیای سیاسی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد جغرافیای سیاسی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

چکیده

در سیاست خارجی فعال و پویا شناخت صحیح و مبتنی بر رهیافت‌های علمی، رکنی غیر قابل بحث است، از این رو مسائل سیاست همسایگی جمهوری اسلامی ایران در محیطی با ویژگی‌های منحصربه‌فرد ژئواستراتژیک، ژئواکونومیک و ژئوکالچری، خارج از این چارچوب نخواهد بود. همسایگان ایران مشتمل بر 15 کشور در حدود27409کیلومتر مربع وسعت، 707میلیون نفر جمعیت و  3238 میلیارد دلار تولید ناخالص داخلی است که نشان از ظرفیتی شگرف در صورت شناخت الزامات راهبردی مبتنی بر تعیین موقعیت اقدام است. چنین ظرفیتی، اهمیت سیاست همسایگی پویا و اثرگذار را برای کشورمان آشکار می‌سازد. در فضای پیرامونی ایران روسیه در شمال، ترکیه در غرب، عربستان در جنوب و پاکستان در شرق قابلیت بیشتری برای اثرگذاری بر تعاملات و مختصات روابط منطقه ای دارند. از این رو لازم است موقعیت اقدام ایران مبتنی بر نقاط قوت، نقاط ضعف، فرصتها و تهدیدها متناسب با هر یک از بازیگران مورد بررسی قرار گیرد. این مقاله با رویکرد توصیفی- تحلیلی با بهره گیری از روش SWOT  در پی شناخت نقاط ضعف، قوت، تهدید ها و فرصتهای ایران در مواجهه با قدرتهای اصلی منطقه و تعیین موقعیت اقدام راهبردی در راستای سیاست گذاری همسایگی بهینه است. یافته ها نشان می دهد متاثر از شرایط مختلف داخلی و خارجی و در  وضعیت کنونی ایران در سپهر همسایگی خود و به ویژه در ارتباط با کشورهای اصلی منطقه بیشینه در موقعیت تدافعی  است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Strategic Action Position first step in formulating an optimal neighborhood policy

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mostafa Ghaderi Hajat 1
  • Hossein Amir Ebrahimi 2
  • Mehdi Najafi 2
  • Haidar Ali Faizi 2
  • Milad Barfi 2
  • Katayoon Arvan 2
1 Assistant Professor of Political Geography, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2 Master student of political geography, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The resurgence of interest in regionalism dates back to the 1990s, and the interest generated by regional convergence processes in Asia, Africa and the United States shows that this phenomenon is not limited to the European Union. Iran, China, Brazil and Russia are among the most neighboring countries in the world. In an active and dynamic foreign policy, correct knowledge based on scientific approaches is an indisputable element, therefore, the issues of the neighborhood policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in an environment with unique geostrategic, geo-economics and geo-cultural features will not be outside this framework .Iran's neighbors include 15 countries with an area of 27,409 square kilometers, a population of 707 million and a GDP of $ 3,238 billion, which shows a tremendous capacity in recognizing strategic requirements based on positioning. In the periphery of Iran, Russia in the north, Turkey in the west, Saudi Arabia in the south and Pakistan in the east have more potential to influence the interactions and coordinates of regional relations. Therefore, it is necessary to examine Iran's position on the basis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in accordance with each of the actors.
Methodology
The method of this research is descriptive-analytical which was done based on strategic studies and in terms of purpose, it is an applied study. The statistical community consists of researchers and analysts specializing in each field by snowball method. The total number of the statistical population is 16 people. To collect data, library resources, documents, backgrounds and surveys were used. Data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire whose validity was confirmed by several experts and reliability using Cronbach's alpha method (0.89). The questionnaire included 48 questions for Russia, 40 questions for Turkey, 82 questions for Saudi Arabia and 47 questions for Pakistan, regarding the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of Iran and each of the countries mentioned in the bilateral relations. Likert was prepared in six options. In this article, one of the most important weaknesses of the SOWT technique was considered by researchers. The high or low of threats and weaknesses was less calculated, so in this study, by correcting this shortcoming and considering the negative score for weakness and threat, and the degree of severity and weakness in the range of 0 and 4 were considered negative.
Finding
Based on the calculations, the score of Iran's internal factors in relation to Russia is equal to -0.91405 and the total score of Iran's external factors in relation to Russia is equal to -1.47627, which indicates that it is in the range of defensive strategies. Based on the calculations, the score of Iran's internal factors relative to Turkey is equal to -1.17748 and the total score of Iran's external factors relative to Turkey is equal to -0.4771, which indicates that it is in the range of defensive strategies. Based on the calculations, the score of Iran's internal factors in relation to Saudi Arabia is equal to -0.91078 and the total score of Iran's external factors in relation to Saudi Arabia is equal to -0.70421, which indicates that it is in the range of defensive strategies. Based on the calculations, the score of Iran's internal factors relative to Pakistan is equal to -0.63056 and the total score of Iran's external factors relative to Pakistan is equal to 0.120456, which indicates that it is in the range of conservative strategies.
Based on the calculations, the score of Iran's internal factors in relation to the four selected neighbors is equal to -0.90822 and the total of Iran's external scores in relation to the four selected neighbors is equal to -0.63428, which indicates the position of Iran in the range of defensive strategies.
Conclusion
 Findings show that in the current situation, Iran is in a maximum defensive position in its neighborhood and especially in relation to the main countries of the region. The findings of this article in the form of a limited study show that affected by various internal and external conditions and far from any fantasies, the current situation of Iran in its neighborhood and especially in relation to the main countries in the region is in a maximum defensive position and on the horizon. In the short term, if national strategies are adopted commensurate with the sources of domestic and foreign power of the country, one can hope to be in a conservative position. Adopting aggressive approaches in the current situation (December 2021), especially in neighborly relations with selected countries, will not involve much geopolitics to strengthen national interests. It should be noted that the current world is an intertwined network based on participatory and competitive currents with a focus on geo-economics’. If we understand the roots of the formation of the situation, we can hope to find real solutions.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Iran
  • neighbors
  • Neighborhood Policy
  • Strategic Action Situation
  • SWOT
  1. Bary, Ton & Others (2005) BA Global Good Neighbor Ethic for International Relations. Foreign Policy in May.
  2. Dalton Lin, K. (2010) Good Neighbor or Bad Neighbor? Explaining China's Neighborhood Policies Prepared for the 16th Annual North America Taiwan Sturdies Conference. June.
  3. David, Fred. R (2014). Strategic Management, Arabic translation, Tehran: Cultural Research Publications, [In Persian].
  4. Hafez Nia, Mohammad Reza, Kavandi Kateb, Abolfazl (2017). Causes of the emergence and survival of Iran, Tehran: Samat Publications, [In Persian].
  5. Khalili, Mohsen (2021). Multi-neighborhood ‌ and Multi-neighborhood, collection of articles on neighborhood policy, Asian diplomacy, number 6, November 2021, pp: 3-5. 3, [In Persian].
  6. Majidi, Mohammad Reza (20201). Multiplicity and Neighborhood Diversity: ‌ Opportunities and Challenges, Neighborhood Policy Articles, Asian Diplomacy, No. 6, November 2021, p: 2, [In Persian].
  7. Mearsheimer (2001) the Tragedy of Great Power Politics. N.K.: Norton, Princeton, N.J. PrincetonUniversity Press.
  8. Mir Mohammadi, Mehdi (2021). Neighborhood Policy ‌ and ‌ Security Cooperation, Neighborhood Policy Articles, Asian Diplomacy, Issue 6, November 2021, pp: 8-9, [In Persian].
  9. Mousavi Shafaei, Massoud (2020). Turmoil in the international order and the necessity of adopting the neighborhood policy, Shargh newspaper, year 17, number 3728, pp. 9 and 15, [In Persian]. 
  10. Najafi, Asghar, Hamidi, Mehrzad, Sajjadi, Seyed Nasrallah, Rajabi, Hossein. (2017). Determining the strategic position of the Vice Chancellor for Sports of Islamic Azad University. Sports Management Studies, 9 (45), 93-114, [In Persian].
  11. Noor Alivand, Yaser (2021) The Importance and Position of the Neighborhood Environment in the International System of Neighborhood, Collection of Articles on Neighborhood Policy, Asian Diplomacy, No. 6, November 2021, pp. 6-7, [In Persian].
  12. Rahmani Jafar, Nasrabadi Ali Baghi, (2007). Successful Manager, Second Edition, Tehran: Loh Mahfouz Publications, [In Persian].
  13. Seif Panahi Shabani, Jabbar, Goodarzi, Mahmoud, Hamidi, Mehrzad, Khatibi, Amin. (2011). Designing and formulating a strategy for the development of championship sports in Kurdistan province. Journal of Sports Management, Volume 3, Number 8, Spring 2011, [In Persian].
  14. Tahaei, S., and Mousavinia, S. (2003). Neighborhood; A theory for the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Islamic Policy Research, 1 (4), 165-192. 7, [In Persian].