شناسایی عوامل اجتماعی و اقتصادی چالش‌زای پیش روی مرزهای شرقی کشور در ارتباط با امنیت ملی جمهوری اسلامی ایران (افق زمانی 1405)

Background and purpose: The category of border security is one of the important theoretical and practical topics of the security and defense fields, which has undergone changes in terms of nature and function in the last two decades. In terms of authority, border security includes, in addition to governments, people and populations living in border areas, people and goods that cross the borders. Border security becomes more important due to the fact that it plays the role of an intermediary between internal and external security and is considered the Achilles heel of governments. The borders of the Islamic Republic of Iran are not exempt from this general rule and have been the site of many wars and conflicts. World War I, II, and Iraq's imposed war against Iran show the turbulence of threats on Iran's borders. The new challenges that have arisen in Iran's eastern neighbor, Afghanistan, and the rise of the Taliban in this country, will change all the security equations of the country's eastern borders. Things like refugees, religious radicalism, insecurity, and even terrorism and drug trafficking, all change quantitatively and qualitatively. Also, the Taliban's way of looking at Islam and the alignment of their thoughts with the government and especially the intelligence apparatus of Pakistan has an impact on the Baluchistan region of Iran. Based on this, in order to predict the country's security situation in the coming years and design suitable security scenarios, it seems necessary to identify the drivers of threats to the country's eastern borders, and researchers seek to answer the main question of what social and economic variables are on the horizon. Are 1405 challenges for the security of the country's eastern borders?
Method: This research is applied in terms of its nature and purpose, and descriptive survey in terms of the type of method and exploratory due to its prospective nature. In this research, the environmental monitoring method was used to identify key variables and form questionnaire items. The statistical population of the research includes familiar experts in related scientific fields. In order to analyze the findings of the research, cross-matrix future research methods were used using Mic Mac software.
Findings: The findings of the research showed that the variable of underdevelopment as a strategic variable and the variables of poverty and illiteracy of the people of the region, the problem of unemployment, the construction of border terminals, human trafficking and drug trafficking as key economic and social challenging variables. The eastern borders of the country were identified in connection with the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran and in the perspective of 1405.
Conclusion: The results of the research also show that economic and social variables in Sistan and Baluchistan province are the cause of security problems such as human trafficking and drug trafficking. And these results confirm the opinions of the famous thinker of the Copenhagen school, Bari Buzan.
Borders have long been heavily guarded places. Contemporary borders are segregated, and the security function of the border has changed from the territorial limits of states to heterogeneous places that are beyond the geopolitics of borderlines. Various researchers have discussed issues such as the competencies and powers of border authorities, the intensification of cross-border policies over time, new border security technologies, immigration control with citizenship laws, and some dimensions of border security xenophobia. The study of borders has confronted us with a variety of new challenges in the contemporary global political environment, despite efforts to dynamize national borders, governments are still trying to maintain traditional borders. Contrary to the initial slogans about the breaking of national borders (Jones & Johnson) due to ISIS attacks and the refugee crisis, the European Union has gone to re-establish the control of internal Schengen borders (McConnell et al).
The issue of border security is one of the important theoretical and practical issues in security and defense fields, which has undergone changes in terms of nature and function in the last two decades. In terms of border security jurisdiction, in addition to governments, it includes people and populations living in border areas, as well as people and goods that cross borders. Border security becomes more important due to the fact that it plays the role of intermediary between internal and external security and is considered the Achilles heel of governments. The direction of threats from external sources is the vulnerability point of governments, and relations between neighbors may turn dark at any time. Borders are the first layer of absorbing negative waves, so governments focus on border security more than anything else.
The borders of the Islamic Republic of Iran are not exempted from this general rule and have been the site of many wars and conflicts, World War I, and II and the war imposed by Iraq against Iran are indicative of the turbulence of threats on Iran's borders. Iran's peripheral borders are over 8731 km, of which 4113 km are land borders and 1918 km are river, lake, and swamp borders, and 2700 km are the coasts of Iran in the north (Mazandaran Sea) and in the south (Persian Gulf and Oman Sea). Iran's eastern borders share a 945-kilometer border with Afghanistan from the mouth of Zulfiqar to Mount Malek Siah and a 978-kilometer border with Pakistan from Mount Malek Siah to the mouth of the Gulf of Gwadar. Iran's eastern borders require a national and even international perspective due to geopolitical reasons. In the two eastern neighboring countries, we are witnessing a combination of terrorism, war, insecurity, and radicalism, which has manifested its direct and indirect effects on the eastern borders. With the connection of drug trafficking to the international mafia, this process has entered new and complicated stages. The borders of Iran and Afghanistan were determined in the Hariroud area by General McLean in 1891, in the Hashtadan and Dasht Hashem areas in 1935 by Fakhreddin Altai Turk, and in the Hamon and Hirmand areas by Goldsmith and McCammon in 1872 and 1903. The borders of Iran and Pakistan were also defined by Holdij in 1905 and 1896 from Black Mountain to Kohak.
One of the determining factors in the field of security studies, especially border security, is the element of time. Knowing the future and taking timely action is the key to success in the field of security and strategic decisions. In the current era, studying the future and trying to predict it, the existing trends and the features of emerging trends and phenomena, and in its continuation, building the future by it is one of the main features of security planning. The new challenges that have arisen in Iran's eastern neighbor, Afghanistan, and the rise of the Taliban in this country, will change all the security equations of the country's eastern borders. Things like refugees, religious radicalism, insecurity, even terrorism, and drug trafficking all change quantitatively and qualitatively. Also, the Taliban's way of looking at Islam and the alignment of their thoughts with the government and especially the intelligence apparatus of Pakistan has an impact on the Baluchistan region of Iran. Based on this, in order to predict the country's security situation in the coming years and design suitable security scenarios, it seems necessary to identify the drivers of threats to the eastern borders of the country, and researchers are looking for answers to the main question of what social and economic variables in the time horizon of 1405 for the security of the eastern borders. Are they a challenging country؟