هوش مصنوعی و آینده قدرت در نظم جهانی: از قدرت منابع‌محور تا قدرت هوشمند

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

گروه حقوق، واحد یاسوج، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، یاسوج، ایران.

10.22034/fasiw.2025.355455.1195.
چکیده
هوش مصنوعی دیگر یک فناوری نوظهور در کنار سایر فناوری‌ها نیست، بلکه به فناوری همه‌منظوره‌ای تبدیل شده است که منطق تولید، توزیع و اعمال قدرت در نظام بین‌الملل را دگرگون می‌کند. پرسش اصلی مقاله آن است که هوش مصنوعی چگونه ماهیت و توزیع قدرت را در نظم جهانی آینده بازتعریف می‌کند و چه سناریوهایی را تا افق ۲۰۳۵ رقم می‌زند. پژوهش با روش کیفی و تلفیق تحلیل مفهومی، مرور نظام‌مند ادبیات و آینده‌پژوهی سناریومحور انجام شده است. نوآوری اصلی، ارائة چارچوب قدرت هوشمند در پنج لایه (مادی-انرژی، محاسبات و زیرساخت ابری، داده و مدل، قواعد و استانداردها، و شناختی-تصمیمی) و سه مفهوم نو (ظرفیت تبدیل، وابستگی متقابل محاسباتیِ تسلیحاتی‌شده و پارادوکس سرعت-قضاوت) است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد قدرت از انباشت منابع به کنترل گلوگاه‌های و توان انتشار و جذب فناوری جابه‌جا می‌شود. بر پایة دو عدم‌قطعیت کلیدی تمرکز توان محاسباتی و هماهنگی حکمرانی جهانی چهار سناریو ترسیم می‌شود: دوقطبی محاسباتی، امپراتوری‌های پلتفرمی، چندجانبه‌گرایی الگوریتمیک و چندقطبی آشوبناک. در پایان، راهبرد حاکمیت گره‌ای برای قدرت‌های میانه و کشورهای در حال توسعه پیشنهاد می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Power in the Global Order: From Resource-Based Power to Smart Power

نویسنده English

Reza Farajpour
Department of Law, Yas.C., Islamic Azad University, Yasuj, Iran.
چکیده English

Artificial intelligence is no longer merely an emerging technology alongside others; it has become a general-purpose technology that transforms the logic of production, distribution, and the exercise of power in the international system. The principal question of the article is how artificial intelligence redefines the nature and distribution of power in the future global order and what scenarios this transformation generates by the 2035 horizon. The research employs a qualitative method, integrating conceptual analysis, a systematic review of authoritative international literature, and scenario-based futures studies. The principal innovation lies in offering a novel framework termed the intelligent power, which formulates power in the AI era across five interconnected layers (material-energy, computation and cloud infrastructure, data and models, rules and standards, and cognitive-decisional), along with three novel concepts (conversion capacity, weaponized computational interdependence, and the speed-judgment paradox). The findings indicate that power shifts from the accumulation of resources to the control of bottlenecks and the capacity for technological diffusion and absorption. Based on two key uncertainties the concentration of computational capacity and the degree of global governance coordination four scenarios are delineated: computational bipolarity, platform empires, algorithmic multilateralism, and chaotic multipolarity. In conclusion, the strategy of nodal sovereignty is proposed for middle powers and developing countries.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Artificial intelligence
world order
structural power
smart power
weaponized interdependence
futurology
nodal governance
cemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2020). Robots and jobs: Evidence from US labor markets. Journal of Political Economy, 128(6), 2188–2244. https://doi.org/10.1086/705716
Barnett, M., & Duvall, R. (2005). Power in international politics. International Organization, 59(1), 39–75. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818305050010
Beckley, M. (2018). The power of nations: Measuring what matters. International Security, 43(2), 7–44. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00328
Bresnahan, T. F., & Trajtenberg, M. (1995). General purpose technologies ‘Engines of growth’? Journal of Econometrics, 65(1), 83–108. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01598-T
Cihon, P., Maas, M. M., & Kemp, L. (2020). Fragmentation and the future: Investigating architectures for international AI governance. Global Policy, 11(5), 545–556.
Couldry, N., & Mejias, U. A. (2019). Data colonialism: Rethinking big data’s relation to the contemporary subject. Television & New Media, 20(4), 336–349.
Ding, J., & Dafoe, A. (2023). Engines of power: Electricity, AI, and general-purpose, military transformations. European Journal of International Security, 8(3), 377–394.
Drezner, D. W. (2019). Technological change and international relations. International Relations, 33(2), 286–303. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047117819834629
Eloundou, T., Manning, S., Mishkin, P., & Rock, D. (2024). GPTs are GPTs: Labor market impact potential of LLMs. Science, 384(6702), 1306–1308. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adj0998
Farrell, H., & Newman, A. L. (2019). Weaponized interdependence: How global economic networks shape state coercion. International Security, 44(1), 42–79. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00351
Feldstein, S. (2019). The road to digital unfreedom: How artificial intelligence is reshaping repression. Journal of Democracy, 30(1), 40–52. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2019.0003
Gilli, A., & Gilli, M. (2019). Why China has not caught up yet: Military-technological superiority and the limits of imitation, reverse engineering, and cyber espionage. International Security, 43(3), 141–189. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00337
Goldfarb, A., & Lindsay, J. R. (2022). Prediction and judgment: Why artificial intelligence increases the importance of humans in war. International Security, 46(3), 7–50. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00425
Hine, E., & Floridi, L. (2024). Artificial intelligence with American values and Chinese characteristics: A comparative analysis of American and Chinese governmental AI policies. AI & Society, 39(1), 257–278. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00146-022-01499-8
Horowitz, M. C. (2019). When speed kills: Autonomous weapon systems, deterrence, and stability. Journal of Strategic Studies, 42(6), 764–788. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2019.1621174
Horowitz, M. C., & Lin-Greenberg, E. (2022). Algorithms and influence: Artificial intelligence and crisis decision-making. International Studies Quarterly, 66(4), Article sqac069.
Jobin, A., Ienca, M., & Vayena, E. (2019). The global landscape of AI ethics guidelines. Nature Machine Intelligence, 1(9), 389–399. https://doi.org/10.1038/s42256-019-0088-2
Johnson, J. (2019). Artificial intelligence & future warfare: Implications for international security. Defense & Security Analysis, 35(2), 147–169. https://doi.org/10.1080/14751798.2019.1600800
Lehdonvirta, V., Wú, B., & Hawkins, Z. (2025). Weaponised interdependence in a bipolar world: How economic forces and security interests shape the global reach of US and Chinese cloud data centres. Review of International Political Economy, 32(5), 1442–1467.
Maas, M. M. (2019). How viable is international arms control for military artificial intelligence? Three lessons from nuclear weapons. Contemporary Security Policy, 40(3), 285–311.
Mearsheimer, J. J. (2019). Bound to fail: The rise and fall of the liberal international order. International Security, 43(4), 7–50. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00342
Payne, K. (2018). Artificial intelligence: A revolution in strategic affairs? Survival, 60(5), 7–32.
Roberts, H., Cowls, J., Morley, J., Taddeo, M., Wang, V., & Floridi, L. (2021). The Chinese approach to artificial intelligence: An analysis of policy, ethics, and regulation. AI & Society, 36(1), 59–77. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00146-020-00992-2
Rolf, S., & Schindler, S. (2023). The US–China rivalry and the emergence of state platform capitalism. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 55(5), 1255–1280.
Sastry, G., Heim, L., Belfield, H., Anderljung, M., Brundage, M., Hazell, J., O’Keefe, C., Hadfield, G. K., Ngo, R., Pilz, K., Gor, G., Bluemke, E., Shoker, S., Egan, J., Trager, R. F., Avin, S., Weller, A., Bengio, Y., & Coyle, D. (2024). Computing power and the governance of artificial intelligence (arXiv:2402.08797). arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2402.08797
Sevilla, J., Heim, L., Ho, A., Besiroglu, T., Hobbhahn, M., & Villalobos, P. (2022). Compute trends across three eras of machine learning. In 2022 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN) (pp. 1–8). IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/IJCNN55064.2022.9891914
Taddeo, M., & Floridi, L. (2018). Regulate artificial intelligence to avert cyber arms race. Nature, 556(7701), 296–298. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-018-04602-6
Zuboff, S. (2015). Big other: Surveillance capitalism and the prospects of an information civilization. Journal of Information Technology, 30(1), 75–89.